quietlife.net

global warming is real

01 Jan 2006

Dear bloggers (Mark is my token example, but the rest of you know who you are) that make annoying sarcastic posts about global warming not existing because of one point of data in one place that was colder,

Global warming is real. The globe really is warming. Making snide posts about England’s cold winter, or record cold temperatures in Boise or whatever doesn’t refute this fact – it only makes you look silly. Certainly it’s debatable whether or not this recent warming is outside the realm of normal global cycles at all, and if so, whether or not human CO2/sulphate aerosols/etc are affecting it. What’s not debatable is that the planet is warming up.

Claiming that global warming is not real because England had a cold winter makes no more sense than claiming it does because it’s currently 65F on January 1st in Nashville. We have this thing called Science that can be employed to help us figure this sort of thing out.

The partisan idiocy in the global warming debate could really use a makeover because it’s getting quite silly. Here is some advice for talking point modifications for both sides:

  • Republicans/conservatives/capitalists: Global warming really is happening. You can be opposed to the idea that human intervention is causing global warming without ignoring the solid empirical evidence of global warming itself.
  • Democrats/liberals/environmentalists: Global warming really is happening, but not every record high in the weather forecast is validation of the human destruction of the planet at the hands of evil oil-hungry capitalist polluters.

The debate is complicated, but it’s nonetheless still pretty interesting without dumbing it down and ignoring science. Further reading:

Go forth and educate.

Comments

ken — January 01, 2006 at 21:06 · reply

Hi, please check out “Mr. Luna’s Bright Idea” to help stop global warming at http://thebrightidea.blogsp…. thanks so much, -ken

Xibo — January 03, 2006 at 13:59 · reply

I think we should plug up volcanos. That would certainly reduce atmospheric pollution and slow down global warming.

Les Jones — January 04, 2006 at 15:36 · reply

I agree that the climate has gotten warmer over the last century. I’m just not convinced that the cause is anthropogenic.

Even if it is, the next question is, whadya wanna do about it? For something like Kyoto to make sense, all of these conditions have to be met:

  1. Global warming exists (granted). However, that doesn’t mean things will continue to get hotter indefinitely, unless you believe the next point.
  2. Global warming is caused by human activity, and specifically the production of CO2, which is the only thing Kyoto regulates. At least part of the warming is believed to be due to solar activity which is beyond our control.
  3. The net effect of global warming will be negative. Some areas will be better off with a warmer climate. Some will be worse off. The planet’s climate has been hotter and colder in the past. It doesn’t make any sense to go into a panic just because things are heating up.
  4. Kyoto caps would significantly reduce emissions. Probably not. Many European countries are exceeding Kyoto limits. Even if fully implemented, Kyoto would only delay global warming a little.
  5. The costs of imposing Kyoto caps are less than the benefits.

It’s also worth pointing out that North America is a net carbon sink thanks to its growing forests, while Europe is a net carbon producer.

cwage — January 08, 2006 at 19:08 · reply

I agree that the climate has gotten warmer over the last century. I’m just not convinced that the cause is anthropogenic.

Neither am I (I am swayed but not convinced), but I want to re-iterate that the point of my post here is not to defend either side of the debate, but rather to point out that regardless of what we think about the anthropogenic nature of global warming, it’s silly to deny the existence of the warming entirely.

That said, I disagree with this point:

  1. The net effect of global warming will be negative. Some areas will be better off with a warmer climate. Some will be worse off. The planet’s climate has been hotter and colder in the past. It doesn’t make any sense to go into a panic just because things are heating up.

I think that is a bit oversimplified.. all hell would break loose, for example, if the gulf stream shifted significantly.

The climate got colder and warmer in the past, and it no doubt had intense effects on the human race, forcing adapation and migration (with, no doubt, extensive casualties as a result). We currently live in a relatively delicate balance with nature – coastal areas in a delicate balance with sealevel, cities with energy grids designed to accomodate cooling/heating for their climate, cities (*cough*Las Vegas*cough*) that exist where they do only as marvels of human engineering to begin with, etc. Anyways, I’m not saying it’s gonna be like some “the day after tomorrow” scenario, but a few degrees of warming doesn’t necessarily only mean “it’s just a few degrees warmer everywhere”. It could mean significant changes that we need to understand so we can ascertain the likelihood and plan ahead if necessary.

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